Bhubaneswar: India enters 2026 confronting a complex matrix of geopolitical friction, internal security deadlines, and climate-induced economic pressures, marking a decisive shift from the stabilisation-oriented approach of the previous year, according to official data and strategic analysts.
While the domestic economy continues to post growth above seven per cent, New Delhi is simultaneously navigating a challenging external environment, marked by trade disruptions, regional security threats, and evolving diplomatic recalibrations.
Trade Tensions and the “Diplomacy of Repair”
On the global economic front, India is engaged in what officials describe as a “diplomacy of repair” to address the 50 per cent tariffs imposed by the United States in 2025 on key Indian exports. The tariffs followed the August 6 Executive Order issued by then US President Donald Trump, which targeted India’s record purchases of discounted Russian crude oil.
The Indian government is actively pursuing a trade settlement in early 2026, engaging at multiple diplomatic and commercial levels to unlock stalled investment flows and restore predictability to bilateral trade relations.
Internal Security: Maoism and Terror Networks
On the domestic security front, Union Home Minister Amit Shah has reiterated the government’s objective of making India “Maoist-free” by March 31, 2026. While the deadline remains ambitious, official records indicate significant progress.
Maoist presence has declined from 125 districts in 2014 to just three districts in 2025. Major operations, including Operation Black Forest, neutralised 270 Maoists in 2025, among them top leaders Nambala Keshav Rao and Madvi Hidma, a resident of Chhattisgarh’s Maoist-affected Sukma district.
Surrender rates have surged, with 1,225 Maoists laying down arms nationwide in 2025, aided by state rehabilitation packages offering incentives of up to ₹20 lakh. Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra have all declared themselves Maoist-free, while Chhattisgarh has reclaimed former strongholds such as Bijapur, Sukma, and Dantewada, leaving only three vulnerable districts.
Overall Maoist violence has dropped sharply, with incidents declining by 53 per cent and fatalities among security personnel falling by 73 per cent between 2014 and 2024.
Terrorism and Emerging Threats
Security agencies have reported a 95 per cent conviction rate in terror-related cases handled by the National Investigation Agency (NIA). However, officials have flagged the emergence of “white-collar terrorism”, involving educated professionals.
This concern was underscored by the November 10 Delhi car bomb blast near the Red Fort, which killed 15 people and injured several others. Subsequent investigations dismantled a Jaish-e-Mohammed–linked network, including doctors associated with Faridabad-based Al-Falah University.
The bomber, Umar Un Nabi, an assistant professor at Al-Falah Medical College and a native of Pulwama in Jammu and Kashmir, was killed in the blast. Investigators found that the network raised ₹26 lakh to fund terror activities. At least eight arrests have been made so far, including Al-Falah University founder Jawad Ahmad Siddiqui, with several suspects currently under surveillance.
Cybercrime: A Growing National Menace
Cybercrime emerged as a major internal security challenge in 2025. India lost nearly ₹1,000 crore every month to cyber fraud, particularly through so-called “digital arrest” scams.
Nearly 18,000 cases were reported within two months, leading to the arrest of over 16,000 accused nationwide through coordinated action involving state cyber police units and the National Cybercrime Reporting Portal.
Addressing Parliament, President Droupadi Murmu warned that cybercrime, digital fraud, and deepfakes pose serious threats to social, economic, and national security. The Supreme Court has since described digital arrest scams as an organised national menace, granting the CBI nationwide jurisdiction and directing coordination with the RBI, Department of Telecommunications, banks, and state cyber units to track money trails, strengthen KYC norms, and freeze suspicious accounts swiftly.
Regional Security and Diplomatic Balancing
Strategic analysts emphasise that 2026 will require a cautious reset in India’s China policy. Despite a meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit, where both sides agreed to maintain peace along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), more than 60,000 troops remain deployed on either side.
India continues to pursue a dual strategy of firm military deterrence combined with calibrated economic de-risking.
The threat from Pakistan also persists, following the Pahalgam attack and India’s subsequent military response in May last year. While infiltration and domestic terror incidents have declined, security agencies caution that India cannot afford complacency along its north-western frontier.
Bangladesh and Regional Stability
Although Bangladesh does not pose a direct strategic challenge comparable to China or Pakistan, rising domestic unrest and attacks on minorities—particularly Hindus—remain a serious concern for New Delhi. These developments have gained heightened significance following the removal of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in 2025, prompting close monitoring by Indian diplomatic and security establishments.
Outlook for 2026
As India enters 2026, policymakers face the task of balancing economic growth, internal security consolidation, regional diplomacy, and climate-linked economic risks. The year ahead is expected to test India’s capacity for strategic adaptation, as it transitions from stabilisation to resilience-building in an increasingly volatile global and regional landscape.
-OdishaAge
